Progression of Coronary Artery Calcium and Incident Heart Failure: The Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND Although the association between coronary artery calcium (CAC) and future heart failure (HF) has been shown previously, the value of CAC progression in the prediction of HF has not been investigated. In this study, we investigated the association of CAC progression with subclinical left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and incident HF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. METHODS AND RESULTS The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis is a population-based study consisting of 6814 men and women aged 45 to 84, free of overt cardiovascular disease at enrollment, who were recruited from 4 ethnicities. We included 5644 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants who had baseline and follow-up cardiac computed tomography and were free of HF and coronary heart disease before the second cardiac computed tomography. Mean (±SD) age was 61.7±10.2 years and 47.2% were male. The Cox proportional hazard models and multivariable linear regression models were deployed to determine the association of CAC progression with incident HF and subclinical LV dysfunction, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 9.6 (interquartile range: 8.8-10.6) years, 182 participants developed incident HF. CAC progression of 10 units per year was associated with 3% of increased risk of HF independent of overt coronary heart disease (P=0.008). In 2818 participants with available cardiac magnetic resonance images, CAC progression was associated with increased LV end diastolic volume (β=0.16; P=0.03) and LV end systolic volume (β=0.12; P=0.006) after excluding participants with any coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS CAC progression was associated with incident HF and modestly increased LV end diastolic volume and LV end systolic volume at follow-up exam independent of overt coronary heart disease.